One set of BNPL demand-growth estimates for six countries in the region has focused on these two correlation factors
Based on its own business data, a financial services firm has released estimates for the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) landscape in six countries of South-east Asia (SEA) for the 2025 to 2027 period.
According to the firm’s data, BNPL had been adopted by 20.6% of adults (those whose data were captured for analysis) in several countries in South-east Asia last year. In the Singapore data, adoption had reached 31.3%; followed by data for the Philippines (27%) and Malaysia (24.4%).
Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand data indicated that approximately one-fifth of adults had opted for BNPL. Collectively, the Philippines and Indonesia data accounted for two-thirds of the region’s BNPL users in 2023.
Other estimates
In terms of transaction volume, the data for the six SEA countries’ BNPL market was US$14.7bn in 2023. Ranked by transaction value, the Indonesia BNPL market data was first (US$4.28bn), followed by Thailand (US$2.91bn), Vietnam (US$2.34bn), the Philippines (US$1.97bn), Malaysia (US$1.86bn), and Singapore (US$1.3bn). Other estimates and predictions include:
- BNPL transactions are predicted to will continue to grow rapidly across the region, possibly reaching US$53.2bn by 2027, based on the reasoning that high concentrations of Gen Z consumers and also young and tech-savvy populations will drive the demand.
- Indonesia is projected to have the highest growth potential with US$16.8bn of BNPL transactions by 2027, a 209% increase from 2024 data. This growth is expected to take more time compared to that predicted of the markets in Malaysia and the Philippines.
- Malaysia’s BNPL demand is expected to reach US$11.3bn by 2027, if it achieves a projected 215% growth rate from 2024. The rationale is that its large Gen Z population (39%) could fuel demand, while a mature banking infrastructure may moderate that demand.
- The Philippines BNPL market is anticipated to grow 235%: from US$2.45bn in 2024 to US$8.2bn by 2027, assuming that population (nearly half of whom are Gen Z) would use more BNPL schemes to buffer insufficient access to traditional banking pathways.
- Thailand’s BNPL growth is expected to be slower, contributing US$8.2bn by 2027, as traditional banking remains the main consumer financing source.
- In Vietnam, BNPL is expected to remain an emerging trend, forecast to reach US$5.9bn by 2027 due to a growing cashless payments ecosystem.
- Singapore’s BNPL market, at a projected US$2.9bn by 2027, is challenged by its established financial system and access to traditional loans.
The firm that released its estimates is UnaFinancial.
