Projections point to a billion new consumers and 94% spending growth over the decade from South-east Asia, India.
Based on a data analysis* on digital consumption patterns in emerging and developed markets, a payment processing platform has shared some findings on online spending shares and consumer growth projections with the media.
First, digital channels accounted for 22% of household spending in India, 19.8% in Indonesia, 15% in Nigeria, and 11.5% in Brazil, compared to 9.1% in the United States and 6.4% in Germany.
Second, more than 1 billion people are projected over the next decade to join the global consumer class in emerging markets, representing a 32% increase, compared to 3% growth in developed economies.
Other findings
Third, consumer spending in emerging regions was projected to grow 94% over 10 years, with South-east Asia and India at 147%. Also:
- South-east Asian countries showed projected consumer class growth rates of 93% in Timor-Leste, 85% in Cambodia, 55% in the Philippines, 42% in Indonesia, and 33% in Myanmar.
- In the Philippines data, the 15–30 age group accounted for 37% of online education spending and 30% of streaming and gaming spending.
- In Vietnam, 86% of online consumption came from middle-spending groups (62% lower middle and 24% core middle).
- In India, middle-spending consumers represented 72% of digital spending, equivalent to nearly 700 million people.
The data analysis was commissioned by EBANX, including resources from interviews with 20 EBANX senior and executive professionals, and also the participation of spokespeople and insights from Nubank, Nequi, Stripe, eMarketer, Canva, PCMI, and World Data Lab.
According to EBANX Chief Product Officer (Singapore), Eduardo de Abreu, “Global merchants are entering a market where the next billion consumers are not only younger, but also mobile-first and increasingly digitally active. This requires a different approach to payments, pricing, and user experience—one that reflects how people actually pay and consume locally.”
*According to the methodology disclosed in the report, the analysis utilized desk research from public sources (government statistics, industry reports, World Bank data) that researchers subjectively adjusted for perceived inconsistencies, followed by unstructured interviews with over 80 e-commerce and payments executives (processors, acquirers, gateways, merchants across verticals) to “clarify and deepen” secondary data. No standardized questionnaires, sample selection criteria, response coding protocols, field dates, or statistical validation methods were disclosed. Final figures emerged from unquantified “triangulation” against proprietary data since 2015, with acknowledged rounding that may exceed 100%. Data reflects researcher synthesis of qualitatively-weighted inputs rather than direct quantitative measures from defined respondent cohorts.
